Box office forecast is indispensable as the control of film investment, film release, distribution and screening and market rhythm. Especially those films with big investment, important schedule release and high public opinion.
Box office forecast is mainly aimed at the schedule, movies or a certain time period, which is very important for market judgment and rational allocation of resources.
However, because of the uncertainty of the situation, the professionalism of the forecasting team or experts, the changes of the market and audience, and the matching of various factors with the help of mathematical models, there is always an error between box office prediction and reality, and sometimes this error can become a joke. But despite this, people are still enthusiastic and concerned.
Then the question is coming,Since all kinds of predictions are not in line with reality, and sometimes they are purely based on experience, why do people still enjoy it?In fact, this question is not difficult to answer. People always regard uncertainty as a kind of risk, and do everything possible to make it definite. The predicted data is a kind of certainty. On the other hand, everything in modern society needs to be evaluated for its advantages and disadvantages, and box office prediction is the basic work for film investment, screening plan and other resources to be rationally allocated in the industry.
Although this prediction is not so accurate, with the analysis of various factors, various referential data and the accumulation of experience, it is meaningful on the whole, and you can make a choice after quantifying the effectiveness of all the work to be done.
Of course, since it is a forecast, there must be deviations, even"rollover" phenomenonIt also happens frequently.
(Source: Lighthouse Professional Edition)
Let’s just say that several films released recently have predicted that the situation will be overturned to varying degrees, and some of them have become the laughing stock of the public.For example, this year’s dark horse movie.Lost in the StarsBefore the release, some media predicted that the total box office would reach 750-980 million. However, "Disappeared She" has exceeded 700 million on the third day after the film was released, and exceeded 1 billion on the fifth day after the film was released. Flexible media or platforms actually predicted the total box office to be more than 3.5 billion.
(Source: Lighthouse Professional Edition)
Also, what is currently being shown.Never Say NeverThere has also been a deviation from the box office forecast. Before the release of Wang Baoqiang’s new film "The Octagonal Cage", the media predicted that the total box office was mostly between 715 million and 1 billion. However, after more than ten days of screening, the reputation of octagonal cage continued to ferment. At 17: 22 before the official release, the total box office of screening and pre-sale of octagonal cage exceeded 400 million, breaking the box office record of domestic film history screening. On the fifth day of the film’s official release, the cumulative box office has reached 909 million, and the latest forecast has been adjusted to 2 billion.
Why does the box office forecast as a reference have such a big deviation from the reality?And as an expert or the media, why do they all make simple and naive mistakes like children?
To answer this question, we must first see what factors are used to judge the current box office forecast.
Generally speaking, if you want to make a box office forecast,first stepMost of them analyze and classify the films or most of the key films in the schedule, refer to the popularity of public opinion or watch the films, and judge the IP theme, starring, the merits of the story, the level of shooting and production, and so on.Second stepIt is to evaluate the box office performance of films before the same IP or films with the same theme;Third stepIt is the schedule factor and market acceptance, including positive and negative evaluation, etc. Or preset the algorithm model, input various parameters, and output the results by the computer.
However, there are some disadvantages in these aspects, such as the interference of subjective factors and personal preferences, and the neglect of information from other dimensions.Therefore, it is difficult to guarantee the accuracy of the forecast results, just like the weather forecast, which can only be approached but cannot be consistent with the results.
Facts tell us that box office prediction can not only focus on the film and the market itself, but sometimes economic and social factors will have a major impact.
The so-called social factors are more about the social significance of the film.What is the social significance of films?Social significance is the story reflected in the film, but it is actually the mapping of social reality, which can resonate and even be placed in a certain person’s design. If so, its response will be very different, which will drive more people to pay attention and watch. Especially in the internet age, this effect can be quickly amplified. This kind of positive feedback undoubtedly has great power. This is what we often call a "phenomenal" film.
Don’t underestimate the social significance, which will greatly affect the final box office performance of the film.This is also the dimension that is difficult to grasp in the previous box office forecast.
(Source: Lighthouse Professional Edition)
The influence of social significance on the box office of the film can be seen in the recently released films.For example, this underestimated suspense crime movie "The Lost Woman" had only a box office forecast of 1 billion yuan before its release, but at 4: 22 on the 18th day after its release, the total box office officially exceeded 3.1 billion yuan. This kind of box office forecast deviation is precisely the performance that does not take into account social significance.
The film "She Disappeared" describes the "intimate relationship" between the two sexes by telling the story between the gambler’s husband and the murdered wife. Such a plot reminds many viewers of news events in real life, such as "pregnant woman falling off a cliff in Thailand", which is equally gruesome and has also triggered a wave of "marriage anxiety".
As a result, the discussion on topics such as "refusing to fall in love" and "fear of marriage" is also increasing. The popularity of this topic has made more viewers walk into the cinema and made more viewers think about the meaning of "intimacy" and "marriage", which has become one of the reasons why "Disappeared She" has hit the box office.
(Source: Cat’s Eye Professional Edition)
Not only "She Disappeared" appeared to be higher than the box office forecast, but also "In the octagonal cage".As a film that broke the film history, The Octagonal Cage is adapted from the incident of "Fighting Orphans in Liangshan", which has certain influence and market audience. Therefore, one of the social significance of The Octagonal Cage lies in the education for the growth of young people. This film can be an educational parent-child film, and it can also make the fighting orphans be seen by more people. The film uses vivid pictures to show many abstract contents, which is closer to the audience and easier to be accepted by the audience.
As a box office forecast with a high degree of attention inside and outside the industry, it requires not only focusing on the film, market, situation and professional quality, but also considering non-professional factors, including social significance, human nature and the influence of prototype events. Only in this way can the box office forecast be closer to reality and its reference function be greater.
The box office forecast is a test of the comprehensive ability of the forecaster, not an empirical guess.
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