[Economic Interface]
Guangming Daily reporter chenchen
Urgent! Urgent! Since July, the total rainfall in northern Jiangxi and central and northern Jiangxi has reached more than three times that of normal years; Four hydrological stations in Poyang Lake broke through the historical extreme in 1998, and the water level is still rising. On 14th, the flood control and drought relief headquarters of Anhui Province issued an order to ask Anqing, Chizhou, Tongling, Wuhu and Maanshan to do a good job in the evacuation of the Jiang Xinzhou of the Yangtze River and the Bund Wei. The water levels of the Yangtze River below Jianli and Dongting Lake and Taihu Lake are still in a state of exceeding the police.
Upgrade! Upgrade! On July 10th, the Hydrological Bureau of the Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources upgraded and issued the red warning of flood in the river section near the mouth of Poyang Lake and Poyang Lake area; Jiangxi Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters upgraded the emergency response of flood control to Grade I on the 11th, and the National Defense General and the Ministry of Water Resources upgraded the emergency response of flood control and flood and drought disaster prevention to Grade II on the 12th, respectively, and all localities and departments made full efforts to rescue and provide disaster relief.
At present, flood control has entered a critical period. What is the flood disaster situation in China? What cards can we play to prevent floods and disasters? What shortcomings still exist in China’s disaster prevention and mitigation system? How to fill these short boards?
Armed police soldiers carry sandbags in Jialing Village, Poyang Town, Poyang County, Jiangxi Province. Xinhua news agency
The rainstorm warning has been issued for 40 consecutive days since January and June, and frequent rainfall concentration has caused severe flood control situation in the Yangtze River and Taihu Lake basins.
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The "barometer" of water conditions in Qilishan, Dongting Lake and Yangtze River basins in Yueyang City, Hunan Province — — Chenglingji Hydrological Station "watches" the vast lake, and the water level scale board standing beside the dam shows that the highest water level in the station in history was 35.94 meters on August 20, 1998. At 5: 30 on July 12th, the flood peak water level at Chenglingji Hydrological Station was 34.58m, which was 0.03m higher than the guaranteed water level (34.55m). At 15: 00 on the 13th, the water level at Chenglingji Hydrological Station was 34.43m, which was 1.93m higher than the warning water level. Similarly, the Poyang Lake basin is facing unprecedented flood control pressure. At 0: 00 on the 12th, the lake at Xingzi Station, a landmark hydrological station in Poyang Lake, broke through the historical extreme of the flood level of 22.52m in 1998. According to the satellite monitoring report, from July 2 to 8, in just seven days, the area of Poyang Lake expanded to the largest scale in recent 10 years, reaching 4,206 square kilometers.
The grim situation of the current public opinion can be seen from this. From June 2 to 6: 00 on July 12, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a rainstorm warning for 40 consecutive days, which became the longest since the rainstorm warning service was launched in 2007. Rainstorms and floods occurred frequently in southern China, and floods were serious in some areas. According to the data updated to July 13th, there are 433 rivers with floods exceeding the warning level, among which 109 rivers have floods exceeding the insurance level and 33 rivers have floods exceeding the historical level. No.1 flood occurred successively in the Yangtze River, the upper reaches of the Yellow River, the Xijiang River in the Pearl River Basin, the Beijiang River and Taihu Lake; The water levels in the main stream of the Yangtze River below Jianli and in Dongting Lake, Poyang Lake and Taihu Lake are still in a state of exceeding the police.
Ye Jianchun, Vice Minister of Water Resources, said that compared with previous years, this year’s flood situation mainly showed four characteristics: First, the rainfall was very concentrated. Since June, heavy rainfall has been concentrated in the Yangtze River and Taihu Lake basins, and the average rainfall in the Yangtze River basin has ranked first since 1961. The cumulative rainfall in the Yangtze River and Taihu Lake basin is 50% to 1.6 times higher than the average for many years. "The point with the largest rainfall is Wuyuan, Jiangxi, and the rainfall has reached 1966 mm since June. What is this concept? The average annual rainfall in Beijing is 630 mm, which means that Wuyuan has been raining in Beijing for three years since June. " Ye Jianchun further explained that the second is that the floods are relatively concentrated, and 422 of the 433 rivers with floods exceeding the police are in the south; Third, the Yangtze River and Taihu Lake floods are concurrent; Fourth, there are frequent floods in small and medium-sized rivers. There are 397 over-alarms in small and medium-sized rivers, 100 of which are over-insured, with a high proportion, and 27 of them exceed the highest water level in history. For example, the water level in Chongqing Qijiang has risen by 10 meters in 8 hours.
People are generally concerned about how the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River compares with the torrential rain in southern China in 1998. Zhai Jianqing, an associate researcher at the National Climate Center, responded that considering the scope, duration and rainfall comprehensively, it was found that from June 27 to July 9, the comprehensive intensity of the regional rainstorm weather process in southern China was the fifth strongest since 1961 and the first in 1998. Compared with the flood in 1998, the southern regional rainstorm weather process from June 27 to July 9 this year has the characteristics of long duration and wide influence.
"So far, the average precipitation in the Yangtze River basin is 51% higher than that in normal years. It can’t be simply compared with 1998. In 1998, after the rain belt lifted northward, it returned to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which lasted until the end of August. The duration was very long, and the Yangtze River levee was soaked in water for a long time, making it difficult to rescue. From a meteorological point of view, the rain belt will rise northward in the future, affecting the northern part of China. At present, it is unlikely that there will be concentrated precipitation for two months similar to that in 1998. " Zheng Guoguang, Secretary-General of the National Disaster Reduction Committee and Deputy Minister of Emergency Management, pointed out.
The arrival of the critical period of "Seven Downs and Eight Ups" flood control has made people pay special attention to the future trend of rain and flood. Ye Jianchun said that the rain belt is expected to move northward in the later period, and regional floods may occur in northern rivers such as the middle reaches of the Yellow River, Haihe South System, Songhua River, Liaohe River and Huaihe River. At the same time, the situation in the Yangtze River and Taihu Lake is still grim because of the relatively high water levels at present. "It is predicted that the eastern part of the rain belt will move northward in the middle and late July, but there is still obvious precipitation in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Although the water levels in Jianli-Datong section of the main stream of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake gradually receded, they still exceeded the police by 0.12-2.76 meters at 18: 00 on the 14th, and the flood control pressure in the Yangtze River basin will not be alleviated. It is expected that the water level will continue to maintain a high level until late July or even mid-August, and the water level in Taihu Lake may be over-guaranteed. " Liu Zhiyu, deputy director of the Hydrology and Water Resources Monitoring and Forecasting Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, stressed.
Hukou County, Jiujiang City, Jiangxi Province is carrying out flood discharge from the lakes in the park. Zhang Yushe/Bright Picture
22,297 reservoirs blocked 64.7 billion cubic meters of flood water, and made every effort to ensure the safety of people’s lives and property.
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At 16: 05 on July 12th, before the arrival of the flood peak in the evening, a hydrologic survey ship "Hydrology 107" with the words "Hydrology of the Yangtze River" set sail from the Yangtze River Hydrological Terminal in Jiangtan, Hankou, Wuhan, and headed for the flow measurement section of Hankou Hydrological Station, which is located 5400 meters downstream of Wuhan Pass, to collect the high flood discharge and single sediment concentration of the section before the flood peak. After checking the flow test data, Jiang Haili of Hankou Branch of Hydrology Middle Reaches Bureau of Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission of Ministry of Water Resources wrote down the data of "26 measurements and flow of 56,300m3/s" in the record book, and immediately submitted it to the hydrological sub-center. Two minutes later, the data of this flow test was displayed in the Yangtze River Hydrological APP.
Accurate survey and monitoring, timely submission of information, and scientific forecasting and forecasting are the "sharp soldiers" and "eyes and ears" of flood control. Early and accurate forecasting of water regime can win more initiative for flood control. In this regard, the Ministry of Water Resources makes full use of the hydrological monitoring and forecasting system integrating automatic forecasting, network transmission, efficient processing and forecasting, and more than 120,000 flood forecasting stations to strengthen monitoring and forecasting. "In the past two years, the forecast period of flood forecast in China has been extended by 1-mdash on average; In two days, the accuracy of flood forecasting increased by 5% on average, from 85% in the south to 90% now, and the accuracy of flood forecasting in the north reached 70%. In addition, big data and artificial intelligence technologies have been applied in early warning and forecasting of small and medium-sized rivers in recent years, which has improved the forecasting ability. " Liu Zhiyu told reporters.
More and more scientific and refined is not only forecasting, but also reservoir operation. At 23: 00 on July 12th, the flood peak in Wuhan crossed the border and lasted until the daytime on the 13th. Chen Guiya, deputy chief engineer of Yangtze River Water Conservancy Committee of Ministry of Water Resources, described the flood peak as "relatively fat" and "relatively gentle". The reason for being "fat" was that the Three Gorges Reservoir kept controlling the flow of 19,000 cubic meters per second. As of the evening of July 12th, the Three Gorges Reservoir has impounded about 3 billion cubic meters of flood water, which is equivalent to reducing the discharge of more than 210 West Lakes. At present, there are 30 large reservoirs in the Yangtze River basin that have been put into joint operation, which have played a role in blocking flood peaks, effectively reducing the water level in the middle and lower reaches and the two lakes, and reducing the flood control pressure. According to statistics, in China, the Ministry of Water Resources has scientifically and finely dispatched 2,297 (secondary) reservoirs, with a total of 64.7 billion cubic meters of flood interception, avoiding the transfer of 7.23 million people.
"There is a shortage of personnel, and the deployment is tight. Jiangzhou is outside, and Jiangzhou needs you!" Not long ago, a long letter from Jiangzhou Town, Chaisang District, Jiujiang City, Jiangxi Province was widely circulated. Seeing this "letter from home", many people from other places in Jiangzhou donated materials, and about 3,000 young people directly returned home to join the flood control team. "We are adults and can protect our homes." Xu Xin, a college student returning home, is busy bagging and carrying sand at the dam. Zou Taiyong, who returned to Jiangzhou Town from Jiujiang City, has been busy inspecting the dam. "After the flood, I began to prepare materials and came back with them. This is my home, and it is our responsibility to keep it. " Zou Taiyong said. At present, the residents of Jiangzhou Town have been evacuated in batches, and healthy young adults aged 18 to 65 have stayed behind to participate in flood control, and more than 600 officers and men of the People’s Liberation Army and the Armed Police are fighting with all their strength.
Where there is danger, there is rescue and rescue. On the 13th, the Emergency Management Department urgently dispatched 1,000 professional fire-fighting and rescue officers and men, such as flood fighting and water rescue, to support flood fighting and rescue in key areas such as Poyang Lake. "The National Defense General coordinated rescue forces, dispatched 47,000 person-times, rescued and evacuated 76,000 people in distress, strengthened coordination and linkage with the People’s Liberation Army and the Armed Police Force, docked 203 rescue teams of central enterprises, and actively coordinated and guided social rescue forces to participate in rescue and disaster relief. Since the flood season, the number of people affected by floods, the number of missing people, the number of collapsed houses and the direct economic losses in the country have decreased by 7.3%, 51.2%, 69.3% and 9.4% respectively compared with the same period in the past five years. " Zheng Guoguang said on the 12th.
In response to the flood control exam, embroidery skills are also reflected in more places — — More than 300,000 people visited the dikes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in the provinces and cities of Taihu Lake Basin, and found dangerous situations in time and handled them. Strengthen supervision to ensure the safety of reservoir during flood season; The Ministry of Water Resources regards mountain torrents as the key point of defense, guides and urges all localities to strengthen the investigation of hidden dangers, sends a total of 15.05 million early warning messages, and starts early warning broadcasts for more than 105,000 times, so as to gain time for the timely transfer of the masses … …
Hydrologists of the Yangtze River carefully rushed to measure the flood peak and Sha Feng in front of the Three Gorges Dam. Photo by Zhang Weige/Bright Picture
3. Accelerate the completion of engineering and non-engineering shortcomings to build the concept of harmonious coexistence between people and rivers and lakes.
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In the next stage, while doing a good job in flood control in the south, the Ministry of Water Resources will continue to pay close attention to the "three major risks" of excessive floods, reservoir accidents and mountain torrents, and guide the northern and other places to do a good job in flood and drought disaster prevention. The National Defense General will also continue to tighten the responsibility for flood control, keep an eye on weak links, strengthen emergency rescue and properly provide post-disaster relief. However, from a longer-term perspective, some problems and shortcomings exposed in China’s flood and drought disaster prevention in this year’s flood control examination can not be solved immediately in the "next stage", but also need long-term planning and long-term success.
Since the flood season began this year, the Taihu Lake Basin has relied on fine dispatching key projects to fully discharge floods, and the flood situation has been alleviated. However, even the Taihu Lake basin, which has a strong ability to control flood control and disaster reduction, still faces problems such as insufficient flood discharge capacity. "In the future, we will continue to improve the flood control engineering system and step up the construction of key projects such as Wusong River, Wangyu River and Taipu River; Improve the comprehensive management pattern of Taihu Lake, lead and discharge the Yangtze River in the north, supply and discharge the Huangpu River in the east, and discharge Hangzhou Bay in the south. " Zheng Chunfeng, deputy director of Suzhou Administration of Taihu Basin Administration of the Ministry of Water Resources, said.
A glimpse of the whole leopard. Judging from the national situation, during the flood season this year, on the one hand, the role of scientifically dispatching water projects reflects the necessity of speeding up the construction of major water conservancy projects, on the other hand, the dangers in some places expose that China’s flood control and disaster reduction system is still not perfect. At the same time, China’s special physical geography, climatic conditions and development stage determine the long-term and arduous task of water control. In the long run, China needs to fill the shortcomings of major water conservancy infrastructure.
In this regard, the the State Council executive meeting held a few days ago studied the construction arrangements of 150 major water conservancy projects this year and its follow-up, demanding that the construction be accelerated, effective investment be promoted, and the ability to prevent floods and droughts be enhanced. After the implementation of these projects, it is estimated that the flood control capacity will be increased by about 9 billion cubic meters, the length of the river channel will be about 2,950 kilometers, the irrigation area will be increased by about 28 million mu, and the annual water supply capacity will be increased by about 42 billion cubic meters.
The flood control standards of major rivers have been significantly improved. What about small and medium-sized rivers? "The flood control standards of small and medium-sized rivers are low, and the quality of dikes is poor, so it is a weak link in flood control every year." Wang Zhangli, deputy director of the Department of Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention of the Ministry of Water Resources, said frankly that while reminding local governments to strengthen inspections of small and medium-sized rivers, find dangerous situations in time and grab protection in time, the Ministry of Water Resources will increase the management of small and medium-sized rivers through the promotion of the river length system and the "four chaos" of rivers and lakes.
During the interview, some experts said that the weak links in the current flood prevention work are the increasingly prominent urban flood problem, the low flood control capacity of small and medium-sized rivers, the large number of dangerous reservoirs, the difficulty in opening flood storage and detention areas, the lack of flood control awareness of some cadres and the masses, and the lack of practical experience in fighting floods and rescues. Some engineering projects can’t be filled in a short period of time, so they need to be made up in non-engineering measures such as monitoring, forecasting and early warning, scheme plan, organization and mobilization, and team material preparation.
Many experts pointed out that frequent and serious floods and droughts are China’s national conditions due to climatic conditions. Floods cannot be completely eliminated, and there can be no once-and-for-all engineering means to prevent and control floods. Based on economic rationality and reality, flood control facilities can only meet certain design standards, while floods are very random. Therefore, flood control and disaster reduction is actually the resistance and risk management of flood disasters. The guiding ideology is to change from disorderly and uncontrolled competition for land with water to orderly and sustainable coexistence with floods, to maintain awe of nature, to find a way out for floods, and to establish a more harmonious and good relationship between people and rivers and lakes.
