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How to get to the property market in third-and fourth-tier cities?

  On April 16th, the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Issuing the Special Fund Budget for Urban Affordable Housing Project of the Central Government in 2019", and the number of planned renovation sets of urban shanty towns in 2019 was also released.

  Compared with 2018, the number of shed renovation sets in 37 provinces and cities in 2019 totaled 2,852,900 sets, which was nearly 51% lower than the planned renovation set of 5.88 million sets in 2018.

  Before the Ministry of Finance announced the start-up of the shed reform plan in 2019 in April, in January 2019, local governments disclosed the relevant data of the shed reform plan in 2019 in their work reports, and the targets of nearly half of the cities were lower than those in early 2019.

  Analysts pointed out that the sharp reduction of the start-up target of shed reform in 2019 indicates that the proportion of commercial housing sales brought by shed reform in the total sales of commercial housing in the country will gradually decrease, and the direct impact is reflected in the benefits of shed reform in third-and fourth-tier cities and below. It will gradually weaken.

  According to the report of Kerui Real Estate Research Center, except for a few provinces such as Fujian, Tianjin, Guangxi, Guangdong and Tibet, the planned construction volume of the remaining 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities has declined to varying degrees compared with 2018, with a decline of more than 50% reaching 15.

  In terms of absolute value, the planned construction starts of Jiangxi, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces in 2019 still exceeded 200,000 sets, ranking among the top three in many provinces and cities, while the construction starts of seven provinces and cities such as Ningbo, Ningxia and Hainan were all less than 10,000 sets due to the small scale of shed reform. Judging from the year-on-year changes, there are ups and downs among provinces and cities, and the overall situation is "falling more and rising less". Five provinces, including Fujian, Tianjin, Guangxi, Guangdong and Tibet, grew year-on-year, with Fujian’s increase being the most significant, reaching 117%. The planned starts of the remaining 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have declined to varying degrees compared with 2018, with 15 of them falling by more than 50%. It is noteworthy that Shandong, Henan, Guizhou, Hunan and other major shed-reformed provinces all experienced a year-on-year decline of over 70%. We believe that the staged callback in the provinces with a large amount of shed reform in the early stage conforms to objective laws and market expectations. For example, in Henan Province, the actual amount of shed reform in 2018 has reached 1.8 times that in 2016, and the planned target for 2019 is only 150,000 sets, down 77% year-on-year, with a significant decline, and the decline is also expected.

  In fact, before the Ministry of Finance announced the start-up amount of shed reform plans in 2019 in various provinces in April, in January 2019, local governments disclosed the relevant data of shed reform plans in 2019 in their work reports. Through the comparison of these two sets of data, we can also see the changes in the current market expectations for shed reform.

  Among the 19 provinces that can be counted, 7 provinces including Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Henan and Tibet have not changed much in 2019, and the increase or decrease is within 5%. Nearly half of the cities’ targets have fallen to different degrees compared with the beginning of 2019, and the declines in Liaoning, Jilin, Hubei, Shaanxi and other provinces have significantly exceeded 50%. On the one hand, the data disclosed by some provinces at the beginning of the year are more general, which is basically the target construction volume of two years; On the other hand, Hubei, Shaanxi and other provinces have basically overdrawn the future shed reform space due to the large amount of work started in the previous shed reform. It can be expected that the promotion of shed reform to local real estate sales is also weakening. In addition, the amount of construction started in a few provinces such as Fujian and Sichuan is higher than the data released at the beginning of the year, which is also in line with the regulation idea of "governing by the city", and the goal of shed reform also reflects the characteristics of looseness and tightness.

  Chen Sheng, executive director of China Real Estate Data Research Institute, said that according to the previously announced three-year plan, the proportion of shantytown renovation is gradually decreasing.

  According to the previously published three-year plan, another 15 million sets of shanty towns will be renovated in the three years from 2018 to 2020, which is the second three-year plan for shantytown renovation. Prior to this, in 2015, the State Council proposed to renovate 18 million housing units in shanty towns, including dangerous buildings and villages in cities, in 2015-2017.

  Kerui Real Estate Research Center pointed out that from 2015 to 2017, it basically maintained a year-on-year growth trend. In the past three years, the number of starts was above 6 million sets. Although the target for 2018 was slightly reduced to 5.8 million sets, from the actual completion situation, the number of new shanty towns was 6.27 million sets, and the target completion rate reached a new high of 107.4%.

  The overfulfilment in previous years also laid the groundwork for the subsequent shed reform and shrinkage.

  Last October, the executive meeting of the State Council clearly put forward that the scope and standards of shed reform should be strictly improved, and the monetary resettlement policy of shed reform should be adjusted and improved according to local conditions. Among them, it is clearly proposed to adjust and improve the monetary resettlement policy for shed reform, and cities and counties with insufficient commercial housing inventory and high pressure of rising house prices should cancel the preferential monetary resettlement policy as soon as possible.

  The report of Kerui Real Estate Research Center points out that the less shantytown renovation is, the more it conforms to the objective law, and it is impossible to change more and more. On the other hand, some negative effects of vigorously promoting the monetary resettlement of shed reform have already appeared, such as increasing the pressure of local financial liabilities and pushing up the housing prices in the third and fourth lines. The inventory problem based on the third and fourth lines has been initially solved, and it is also reasonable to lower the target of shed reform.

  The insiders believe that the main purpose of shed reform is to meet the housing needs of residents who just need it. With the reduction of the overall number of shanty towns and the end of the task of destocking in various places, some cities and counties with low inventory will gradually withdraw from the monetization of shed reform.

  Kerui Real Estate Research Center believes that the tightening of shed reform policy in 2019 is basically expected, especially in the context of relatively tight local finance, monetized resettlement and other methods will gradually withdraw, and the stimulating effect on real estate sales will also be weakened.

  In addition, the report pointed out that the current scale of shed reform is "halved", first of all, it is an impact on the market expectation level, and it is also releasing a signal that the phased destocking task has been completed, and the promotion of shed reform to real estate sales is disappearing. Previously, the shed reform once directly boosted the sales of about 20% of commercial housing, and this force will never return in 2019 and beyond.

  In addition, the monetization resettlement has also been continuously tightened. As early as October 2018, it was stated at the symposium of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that the monetization resettlement of shed reform in 2019 will be mainly based on special bonds, and the government’s purchase of shed reform service mode will be cancelled; At the same time, local governments have also proposed that the shed reform will focus on physical resettlement, and the proportion of monetized resettlement will also be reduced, which will have a more direct impact on the sales of commercial housing. Without the drive of funds, the purchasing power of residents will be greatly reduced.

  Zhang Bo, chief analyst of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that the sharp reduction of the starting target of shed reform in 2019 indicates that the proportion of commercial housing sales brought by shed reform in the total sales of commercial housing in the country will gradually decrease, and the direct impact is reflected in the shed reform in the third-and fourth-tier cities and below will also gradually weaken.

  In Zhang Bo’s view, the direct benefits of shed reform will be accelerated and weakened in the third-and fourth-tier cities in the future, and the third-and fourth-tier cities will usher in obvious differentiation. In the future, the cities in key urban agglomerations will have more population concentration, and the shrinking third-and fourth-tier cities will face further shrinkage of the commercial housing market.

I found it! 30 years ago, the proprietress of Four Seasons Beauty turned out to be her!

"These two stores can earn hundreds of thousands and hundreds of thousands a year."
Recently, an interview video 30 years ago became a hit.
Doing business in hangzhou sijiqing that year.
The face and words of the young proprietress,
Let netizens shout: shocked for a whole year!
Who is she?
After 30 years, what happened to her?
Network-wide attention
The beautiful proprietress 30 years ago, found it!
In this old image in 1993, a young girl opened a shop in the Sijiqing clothing market. When interviewed by reporters, she smiled and said:"These two stores have to earn hundreds of thousands and hundreds of thousands a year, which is no problem."
After the content was issued, it caused widespread concern.
Partial screenshot
At the same time, many netizens lamented in the comment area:"The temperament is too good" "It’s elegant to wear and talk" "It’s cool to wear a face value" …
Soon, many netizens reported that this is Zhuji, surnamed Lou.
I was only 20 years old when I was interviewed.
When I was young, I chose to go out and rush
Ms. Lou said that many friends told her about it yesterday, but she was not particularly surprised and surprised. She recalled that she was about 20 years old when she was interviewed.
Speaking of the business situation in that year, Ms. Lou said,At that time, materials were in short supply,In fact, this kind of market is thriving all over the country.
There are a group of frolicters in every era, and standing at this outlet may be the lucky ones.
"I felt that the market was relatively prosperous as a distribution center for commercial logistics at that time, so I wanted to join.At that time, going to Sijiqing was the forefront.. "Therefore, with the idea of being fearless of heaven and earth, Ms. Lou resolutely chose to go out and take a trip.
At the same time, she is also full of expectations for young people. "Every era belongs to young people. I hope that young people now have a little courage and go for it when they think of anything."
In the face of everyone’s concern,Ms. Lou feels honored and indifferent."Thank you very much for your interest in that era."
"People of our age will be nostalgic, and children may be interested in the previous era … There are many reasons for this video to be popular, and it may be calm in a few days." Ms. Lou said.
At present, Ms. Lou has retired.For her other recent situation, she admits that she doesn’t want to disclose too much.
Every era has a batch.
Young people full of vigor and vitality
I hope we will always be brave and free!
Embrace your best self!
Source: Zhuji Xishi Eye
Editor Zhong Wei Review Xie Jun Du Haifeng
Reporting/feedback

The financial opening is fast and steady, and foreign capital is overweight and laid out in China market.

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 23rd, china securities journal published an article on the 23rd, titled "Financial Opening, Steadily Stabilizing Foreign Capital Plus Layout in China Market". According to the article, Faba Agricultural Bank Wealth Management Co., Ltd. opened and became the fifth foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management company in China. One of Japan’s largest asset management institutions-Sumitomo Mitsui Private Equity Fund Management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Sumitomo Mitsui, has completed the filing and can develop its business in China … With the steady progress of China’s financial opening up, foreign financial institutions have accelerated their efforts to "grab the beach" in China market in recent years. The insiders believe that it is necessary to further benchmark international best practices and rules, create a market-oriented, rule-of-law and international first-class business environment, and steadily and orderly promote the two-way opening of institutional financial industry.
Financial opening-up is deepening.
In recent years, the financial management department has actively and orderly promoted the opening of the financial industry, and achieved positive results, including the substantial relaxation of market access for financial services, the deepening of financial market opening, and the steady progress in RMB internationalization.
(Profile picture, issued by Xinhua News Agency)
Data show that by the end of 2022, foreign banks had established 41 foreign-funded corporate banks, 116 branches of foreign banks and 135 representative offices in China, with a total of 911 business institutions and total assets of foreign banks reaching 3.76 trillion yuan. Overseas insurance institutions have set up 68 foreign-funded insurance institutions and 79 representative offices in China, with total assets of foreign-funded insurance institutions reaching 2.26 trillion yuan.
"After more than 40 years of unremitting exploration, China’s financial industry has achieved’ four trends’ as a whole." Huo Xuewen, chairman of Bank of Beijing, said that, specifically, access management has moved from a positive list to a negative list, the opening mechanism has moved from one-way introduction to two-way opening, international cooperation has moved from active participation to active governance, and regional opening has moved from multi-point exploration to comprehensive breakthrough.
"For foreign investors, China financial assets represented by RMB assets have diversified investment value, actual capital allocation needs and fundamental support." Pang Yao, chief economist and research director of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, believes that foreign financial institutions can accelerate their entry into, participation in and deep cultivation of China’s financial market, and global investors can pay attention to, allocate and hold China’s financial assets and cast the best vote of confidence for China’s economic growth and social development with real money.
(subhead) Continuously optimize policy arrangements
Experts said that the recent actions of the regulatory authorities also showed that the support for financial openness continued to increase. A few days ago, the People’s Bank of China and the foreign exchange bureau held a forum for foreign-funded financial institutions and foreign-funded enterprises, which released a positive signal to further promote high-level opening up.
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China, said that the next step will be to conscientiously implement the requirements of "the State Council’s Opinions on Further Optimizing the Foreign Investment Environment and Increasing Attracting Foreign Investment", continuously optimize policy arrangements, create a market-oriented, rule-of-law and international first-class business environment, continuously improve the quality and efficiency of financial services, and help to open to the outside world at a high level.
"Opening to the outside world is China’s basic national policy, and it is also the core requirement for deepening the structural reform of the financial supply side and promoting high-quality economic development." Shang Fulin, the former chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, believes that it is necessary to further benchmark international best practices and rules, steadily and orderly promote the two-way opening of the institutional financial industry, better integrate with the international market, make better use of the international and domestic markets, give full play to the advantages of the two resources, improve the quality and efficiency of the international economic cycle, serve to build a new development pattern of double cycle, and provide a solid foundation and guarantee for coping with external financial shocks.
Experts said that in the future, financial opening needs to accelerate the establishment and improvement of unified market system rules, establish a fair, transparent and standardized market system, and create a first-class business environment with marketization, rule of law and internationalization; Constantly improve the financial infrastructure and deepen and expand the interconnection between domestic and foreign markets; Accelerate the establishment of a modern central bank system, promote financial institutions to speed up the improvement of internal governance, speed up the shortcomings of the regulatory system, and enhance the ability of risk early warning and prevention. (End)
Reporting/feedback

Lv Xiaoming, a famous basketball player, and Chen Jiawei, a new star of skipping rope: Join hands with 361 to help "China loves, passing on from generation to generation"

Flames jump in the sun, cheers spread in the crowd, and the torch relay of Hangzhou Asian Games is in full swing. In this grand ceremony, the torchbearers holding the flame high are undoubtedly the focus of the camera. They are outstanding representatives from all walks of life, but also important messengers of the Asian Games spirit.

As professional athletes in their respective fields, Lv Xiaoming, a famous basketball player, and Chen Jiawei, a jumping rope star, are also among the torchbearers of the Hangzhou Asian Games. With vigorous posture, they hand in hand with 361 to pass on "China Love" to the next stick.

Lv Xiaoming, a famous basketball player, loves never to leave.

"As long as you get to the stadium, you are very passionate, that is, love! Basketball is very important in my life. " Lv Xiaoming used to be a famous defender in China Men’s Basketball Professional League, and became the assists king in CBA League for three consecutive seasons, and was also selected for the China Men’s Basketball Team. Because of his love for basketball, he still paid attention to the future and development of basketball in China after retiring, and took root in basic basketball training. Over the years, he trained a large number of young players and became one of their first mentors. He also opened the basketball camp-"Lv Xiaoming basketball camp" in his own name, and now the training camp has become a resounding signboard in the field of domestic basketball youth training, which has been recognized by both inside and outside the industry.

Lv Xiaoming’s love for sports and his support for youth sports coincide with 361. For a long time, 361 has invested a lot of resources and energy in the field of youth sports, and its own IP "Touching the ground and burning" has been established as a professional basketball event, which has specially added junior group events. On May 13th, Lv Xiaoming and 361 jointly launched the # Assisting Future # program, and jointly launched the "Touching the Ground and Burning Young basketball camp" in Chengdu, and served as the head coach of 361 Junior Basketball, personally guiding the younger generation of basketball fans and igniting their basketball enthusiasm and dreams.

Chen Jiawei, a jumping rope star, insists on making breakthroughs.

Chen Jiawei, who has been selected into the national skipping team for many times, participated in the World Skipping Championships and the Asian Skipping Championships, and is a member of the lecturer group of the Guangzhou Skipping Association. At the age of 17, he has made outstanding achievements in various competitions at home and abroad and won numerous awards.

Chen Jiawei’s close friend relationship with 361 was established in sports, and he was a loyal user of 361. In his view, 361 brand is professional, young and energetic, and its sports equipment surprises him in comfort, wear resistance, scientific and technological content and design. Now he wears professional rope skipping equipment provided by 361 in every training and competition, especially the rebound and shock absorption of rope skipping shoes and other scientific and technological applications have greatly helped him.

Chen Jiawei is a representative in the field of youth sports, and 361 continues to empower more teenagers who love sports like him. Not long ago, in the 2023 World Rope Skipping Championship, 361 helped China rope skipping national team to win 20 gold, 11 silver and 5 bronze medals, and broke four world records in succession, contributing to promoting the health of Chinese teenagers.

For ordinary people, skipping is a simple and economical way of exercise, which can be used for entertainment and physical exercise, but for professional skipping athletes, it is a sport that needs repeated practice, and it takes persistence day after day to achieve a breakthrough and achieve good results.

Chen Jiawei once said, "If I encounter difficulties in training, I will practice more myself, such as speed skipping. If I can’t break my best performance, I will work harder on speed. Of course, the speed of training may be boring and you need to jump very simply, which requires long-term persistence to break through yourself. "

Chen Jiawei’s love for the sport of skipping rope is also poured behind her persistence. Chen Jiawei said frankly that he was selected by the teacher to join the skipping team at first, and he held the mentality of "giving it a try", but he gradually became fond of this sport in the process of trying, and now skipping has become a career he loves. Not only that, Chen Jiawei said that sports are contagious and influenced by himself. Many students around him also love sports as much as him, and often run and play ball together.

Join hands with 361 to help "China loves and passes on from generation to generation"

Both Lv Xiaoming and Chen Jiawei are influencing more teenagers with their own personal experiences and practical actions, vividly interpreting the connotation of "China’s love is passed down from generation to generation".

Nowadays, Lv Xiaoming and Chen Jiawei, as outstanding athletes in their respective fields, have been selected as the torchbearers of the Asian Games to participate in the "firewood relay", which is also the recognition and encouragement of their professional strength. At the same time, 361, as the leading national sports brand in China, has been deeply involved in the field of sports specialty for many years, committed to providing sports enthusiasts with high-quality sports equipment and support, and has sponsored many large-scale international sports events such as the Asian Games and the Olympic Games, and has become one of the most important "boosters" for the development of sports in China. The combination of professional athletes and professional sports brands will provide strong support for the development of sports in China.

The torch relay of the Asian Games is connected with the past, symbolizing inheritance and conveying a positive spirit. With the help of this important ceremony, Lv Xiaoming and Chen Jiawei passed on their persistence and love for sports to more people. At the same time, as the official partner of the four consecutive Asian Games, 361 is once again facing the world, so that more people can see the strength and elegance of China’s national sports brand!

Disclaimer: The content of this article reprints enterprise information for this website, which only represents the author’s personal views and has nothing to do with this website. The contents involved do not constitute investment and consumption suggestions, and are for readers’ reference only. Please check the relevant contents yourself.

When two siri start to communicate, do they talk to each other?

Produced by Tiger Sniffing Technology Group

Author | Qi Jian

Editor | Chen Yifan

Head picture | |FlagStudio

"One morning, your AI assistant sent me an interview invitation, so I asked my AI assistant to handle it. The latter thing was done by two AI systems. After many rounds of dialogue between them, the date was finalized and the conference room was booked. There was no human participation in the whole process. "

This is Michael Wooldridge’s picture of the future. He is a British AI scientist and is currently a professor of computer science at Oxford University.

What will happen to our society when artificial intelligence can communicate with each other?

During the one-hour conversation, woodridge was very interested in this topic. He is one of the top scholars in the world in the research of multi-agent systems, and "collaboration between AI" is his key research direction.

In Wooldridge’s view, although artificial intelligence has become more and more like human beings and even surpassed human beings in some fields, we still have a long way to go from real artificial intelligence, whether it is AlphaGO, which defeated human beings, or ChatGPT, which answered like a stream.

When most people are immersed in the phenomenal innovation created by OpenAI, Wooldridge appears much calmer. ChatGPT shows the power of neural network, but also shows its bottleneck-it can’t solve the huge power consumption and computing power problem, and the unsolvable AI "black box" problem."Although the deep neural network can often answer our questions perfectly, we don’t really understand why it answers like this."

AI that surpasses human beings is often called "strong artificial intelligence", while AI with universal human intelligence level is called Artificial general intelligence (AGI).Wooldridge described AGI in his book "The Complete Biography of Artificial Intelligence": AGI is roughly equivalent to a computer with all the intellectual abilities possessed by an ordinary person, including the abilities of using natural language to communicate, solve problems, reason and perceive the environment, and it is at the same or higher level of intelligence as an ordinary person. The literature about AGI usually does not involve self-consciousness or self-consciousness, so AGI is considered as a weak version of weak artificial intelligence.

However, the "weak" AGI is far from the contemporary artificial intelligence research.

"ChatGPT is a successful AI product. It is very good at tasks involving language, but that’s all. We still have a long way to go from AGI. " In a conversation with Tiger Sniff, woodridge said that deep learning enables us to build some AI programs that were unimaginable a few years ago. However, these AI programs that have made extraordinary achievements are far from the magic to push AI forward towards grand dreams, and they are not the answer to the current development problems of AGI.

Michael Wooldridge is a leading figure in the field of international artificial intelligence. He is currently the dean of the School of Computer Science of Oxford University, and has devoted himself to artificial intelligence research for more than 30 years. He served as the chairman of the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI) from 2015 to 2017 (which is one of the top conferences in the field of artificial intelligence), and was awarded the highest honor in the British computer field-the Lovelace Medal in 2020, which is regarded as one of the three influential scholars in the British computer field.

ChatGPT is not the answer to building AGI.

Before the appearance of ChatGPT, most people thought that general artificial intelligence was very far away. In a book entitled "Intelligent Architecture" published in 2018, 23 experts in the field of AI were investigated. When answering "Which year has a 50% chance to realize general artificial intelligence", Google Engineering Director Ray Kurzweil thought it was 2029, while the time given by iRobot co-founder Rodney Brooks was 2200. The average time point predicted by all the 18 experts who answered this question is 2099.

However, in 2022, Elon Musk also expressed his views on realizing AGI in 2029. He said on Twitter, "2029 feels like a pivotal year. I’d be surprised if we don’t have AGI by then. (I feel that 2029 is a crucial year. I would be surprised if we didn’t have AGI then) "

In this regard, Gary Marcus, a well-known AI scholar, put forward five criteria to test whether AGI is realized, including: understanding movies, reading novels, being a chef, reliably carrying more than 10,000 lines of bug-free code according to natural language specifications or through interaction with non-professional users, and arbitrarily extracting proofs from mathematical literature written in natural language and converting them into symbol forms suitable for symbol verification.

Now it seems that the general big model represented by ChatGPT seems to have taken a big step towards AGI. The task of reading novels and movies seems to be just around the corner. In this regard, Professor Michael Wooldridge believes that at present, it is still difficult for human beings to achieve AGI in 2029.

Tiger sniffing: AI experts like AlphaGo have defeated human beings, but their abilities have great limitations in practical application. Today’s general big model seems to be breaking this situation. What do you think of the future development of expert AI and AGI?

Michael Wooldridge:Symbolic artificial intelligence is a mode of early artificial intelligence, that is, assuming that "intelligence" is a question about "knowledge", if you want an intelligent system, you just need to give it enough knowledge.

This model is equivalent to modeling people’s "thinking", which led the development of artificial intelligence from 1950s to the end of 1980s, and eventually evolved into an "expert system". If you want the artificial intelligence system to do something, such as translating English into Chinese, you need to master the professional knowledge of human translators first, and then use the programming language to transfer this knowledge to the computer.

This method has great limitations,He can’t solve the problem related to "perception". Perception refers to your ability to understand the world around you and explain things around you.For example, I am looking at the computer screen now. There is a bookshelf and a lamp next to me. My human intelligence can understand these things and environments, and can also describe them. However, it is very difficult to get the computer to carry out this process. This is the limitation of symbolic artificial intelligence, which performs well on the problem of knowledge accumulation, but not well on the problem of understanding.

AI recognizes cats as dogs.

Another method is artificial intelligence based on mental model. If you look at the animal’s brain or nervous system under a microscope, you will find a large number of neurons interconnected. Inspired by this huge network and neural structure, researchers tried to model the structure in the animal brain and designed a neural network similar to the animal brain. In this process, we are not modeling thinking, but modeling the brain.

Symbolic artificial intelligence of "modeling thinking" and neural network of "modeling brain" are two main artificial intelligence modes. With the support of today’s big data and computing power, the development speed of neural network is faster, and ChatGPT of OpenAI is a typical example of neural network.

The success of ChatGPT has further enhanced people’s expectations for deep neural networks, and some people even think that AGI is coming. Indeed, AGI is the goal of many artificial intelligence researchers, but I think we still have a long way to go.Although ChatGPT has a strong general ability when it comes to language issues, it is not AGI, it does not exist in the real world, and it cannot understand our world.

For example, if you start a conversation with ChatGPT now, you will go on vacation after saying one sentence. When you come back from a week’s trip, ChatGPT is still waiting patiently for you to enter the next content. It won’t realize that time has passed or what changes have taken place in the world.

Tiger Sniff: Do you think the prediction of realizing AGI in 2029 will come true?

Michael Wooldridge:Although ChatGPT can be regarded as a part of general AI to some extent, it is not the answer to building AGI. It is just a software combination that is built and optimized to perform a specific, narrow-minded task. We need more research and technological progress to realize AGI.

I am skeptical about the idea of realizing AGI in 2029. The basis of human intelligence is "being able to live in the material world and social world". For example, I can feel my coffee cup with my hands, I can have breakfast, and I can interact with anyone. But unfortunately, AI not only can’t do this, but also can’t understand the meaning of any of them. AGI has a long way to go before AI can perceive the real world.

Although the computer’s perception and understanding ability is limited, it still learns from experience and becomes an assistant to human decision-making. At present, as long as AI can solve problems like a "human assistant", what’s the point of arguing whether a computer system can "perceive and understand"?

We will eventually see a world built entirely by AI.

From driverless cars to face recognition cameras, from AI painting and AI digital people to AI writing codes and papers, it won’t take long. As long as it involves technical fields, whether it is education, science, industry, medical care or art, every industry will see the figure of artificial intelligence.

When talking about whether ChatGPT is often used, Professor Wooldridge said that ChatGPT is part of his research, so it will definitely be used frequently. However, in the process of using it, he found that ChatGPT is really a good helper for basic work and can save a lot of time in many repetitive tasks.

Tiger Sniff: Do you use ChatGPT at work? What do you think of ChatGPT Plus’s subscription mode?

Michael Wooldridge:I often use ChatGPT. I think in the next few years, ChatGPT and the general macro model may emerge thousands of different uses, and even gradually become general tools, just like web browsers and email clients.

I am also a subscriber of ChatGPT Plus. But for the price of $25, I think different people have different opinions. Every user will know whether ChatGPT is suitable for them and whether it is necessary to pay for the enhanced version only after trying it in person. For some people, they may just find it interesting, but they prefer to do things by themselves at work. For me, I find it very useful and can handle a lot of repetitive desk work. However, at present, I regard it more as part of my research.

Tiger sniffing: A new PaaS business model with big model capability as the core is being formed in today’s AI market. OpenAI’s GPT-3 gave birth to Jasper, while ChatGPT attracted Buzzfeed. Do you think a new AI ecosystem will be formed around the general big model?

Michael Wooldridge:ChatGPT has a lot of innovations at the application level, and it may soon usher in a "big explosion" of creativity.I think in a year or two, ChatGPT and similar applications will land on a large scale.Complete simple repetitive copywriting work such as text proofreading, sentence polishing, induction and summary in commercial software.

In addition, in multimodal artificial intelligence, we may see more new application scenarios. For example, a large language model combined with image recognition and image generation may play a role in the AR field. Based on the understanding of video content of large model, AI can be used to quickly generate summaries for videos and TV dramas. However, the commercialization of multimodal scenes may take some time.But we will eventually see all kinds of content generated by AI, even virtual worlds created entirely by AI.

Tiger Sniff: What conditions do you think are needed to build a company like OpenAI from scratch?

Michael Wooldridge:I think it is very difficult to start a company like OpenAI from scratch. First of all, you need huge computing resources, purchase tens of thousands of expensive top-level GPUs, and set up a supercomputer dedicated to AI. The electricity bill alone may be costly. You can also choose cloud services, but the current price of cloud computing is not cheap. Therefore, it may cost millions of dollars to train AI every time, and it needs to run for several months or even longer.

In addition, a huge amount of data is needed, which may be the data of the whole internet. How to obtain these data is also a difficult problem. Data and computing power are only the foundation, and more importantly, it is necessary to gather a group of highly sophisticated AI R&D talents.

Tiger Sniff: Which company is more powerful in AI research and development? What do you think of the technical differences between countries in AI research and development?

Michael Wooldridge:The players on this track may include internet companies, research institutions, and perhaps the government, but they are not public. At present, there are not many players who have publicly announced that they have the strength of big models, and even one hand can count them. Large technology companies are currently developing their own large-scale language models, and their technologies are relatively advanced.

So I don’t want to judge who is stronger,I don’t think there is obvious comparability between the models. The difference between them mainly lies in the rhythm of entering the market and the number of users.OpenAI’s technology is not necessarily the most advanced, but they are one year ahead in marketization, and this year’s advantage has accumulated hundreds of millions of users for him, which also makes him far ahead in user data feedback.

At present, the United States has always dominated the field of artificial intelligence. Whether it is Google or Microsoft, or even DeepMind, which was founded in the United Kingdom, now belongs to the American Alphabet (Google’s parent company).

However, in the past 40 years, China’s development in the field of AI has also been quite rapid.In the AAAI Conference (american association for artificial intelligence Conference) in 1980, there was only one paper from Hongkong, China.But today, the number of papers from China is equivalent to that from the United States.

Of course, Britain also has excellent artificial intelligence teams, but we don’t have the scale of China. We are a relatively small country, but we definitely have a world-leading research team.

This is an interesting era, and many countries have strong artificial intelligence teams.

Deep learning has entered a bottleneck.

When people discuss whether ChatGPT can replace search engines, many people think that ChatGPT’s data only covers before 2021, so it can’t get real-time data, so it can’t be competent for search tasks. But some people think that,In fact, the content of our daily search is, to a large extent, the existing knowledge before 2021. Even if the amount of data generated after that is large, the actual use demand is not high.

In fact, the amount of data used by ChatGPT is very large. Its predecessor GPT-2 model is pre-trained on 40GB of text data, while GPT-3 model is pre-trained on 45TB of text data. These pre-training data sets include various types of texts, such as news articles, novels, social media posts, etc. The large model can learn language knowledge in different fields and styles. Many practices have proved that ChatGPT is still a "doctor" who knows astronomy above and geography below, even with data before 2021.

This has also caused people to worry about the data of large-scale model training. When we want to train a larger model than ChatGPT, is the data of our world enough?futureWill the Internet be flooded with data generated by AI, thus forming a data "snake" in the process of AI training?

Ouroborosaurus is considered as "meaning infinity"

Tiger sniffing: You mentioned in your book that neural network is the most dazzling technology in machine learning. Nowadays, neural network leads us to keep moving forward in algorithms, data, especially computing power. With the progress of technology, have you seen the bottleneck of neural network development?

Michael Wooldridge:I think neural networks are facing three main challenges at present. The first is data. Tools like ChatGPT are built from a large number of corpus data, many of which come from the Internet. If you want to build a system 10 times larger than ChatGPT, you may need 10 times the amount of data.But is there so much data in our world? Where do these data come from? How to create these data?

For example, when we train a large language model, we have a lot of English data and Chinese data. However, when we want to train small languages, for example, in a small country with a population of less than 1 million like Iceland, their language data is much smaller, which will lead to the problem of insufficient data.

At the same time, when such a powerful generative AI as ChatGPT is applied on a large scale, a worrying phenomenon may occur. A lot of data on the Internet in the future may be generated by AI.When we need to use Internet data to train the next generation of AI tools, we may use data created by AI.

The next question is about computing power. If you want to train a system that is 10 times bigger than ChatGPT, you need 10 times of computing power resources.In the process of training and use, it will consume a lot of energy and produce a lot of carbon dioxide.This is also a widespread concern.

The third major challenge involves scientific progress, and we need basic scientific progress to promote the development of this technology.Just increasing data and computing resources can really push us further in the research and development of artificial intelligence, but this is not as good as the progress brought by scientific innovation. Just like learning to use fire or inventing a computer, we can really make a qualitative leap in human progress. In terms of scientific innovation, the main challenge facing deep learning in the future is how to develop more efficient neural networks.

In addition to the above three challenges, AI needs to be "interpretable". At present, human beings can’t fully understand the logic behind neural networks, and the calculation process of many problems is hidden in the "black box" of AI.Although neural networks have been able to give good answers, we don’t really understand why they give these answers.This not only hinders the research and development of neural networks, but also makes it impossible for humans to fully believe the answers provided by AI. This also includes the robustness of AI, and to use AI in this way, we need to ensure that the neural network will not collapse and get out of control in an unpredictable way.

Although the development bottleneck is in front of us, I don’t think we will see the subversion of neural networks in the short term.We don’t even know how it works yet, so it is still far from subversion.But I don’t think neural network is the answer of artificial intelligence. I think it is only one component of "complete artificial intelligence", and there must be other components, but we don’t know what they are yet.

Tiger sniffing: If computing power is one of the important factors in the development of AI, what innovative research have you seen in the research and development of AI chips?

Michael Wooldridge:Computing power is likely to be a bottleneck in the development of AI technology in the future. The energy efficiency ratio of the human brain is very high. The power of the human brain when thinking is only 20W, which is equivalent to the energy consumption of a light bulb. Compared with computers, such energy consumption can be said to be minimal.

There is a huge natural gap between AI system and natural intelligence, which needs a lot of computing power and data resources. Humans can learn more efficiently,But this "light bulb" of human beings is always only 20W, which is not a very bright light bulb.

Therefore, the challenge we face is how to make neural networks and machine learning technologies (such as ChatGPT) more efficient. At present, no matter from the point of view of software or hardware, we don’t know how to make neural network as efficient as human brain in learning, and there is still a long way to go in this regard.

When the system talks to the system directly.

Multi-agent system is an important branch of AI field, which refers to a system composed of multiple agents. These agents can interact, cooperate or compete with each other to achieve a certain goal. In multi-agent system, each agent has its own knowledge, ability and behavior, and can complete the task by communicating and cooperating with other agents.

Multi-agent system has applications in many fields, such as robot control, intelligent transportation system, power system management and so on. Its advantage is that it can realize distributed decision-making and task allocation, and improve the efficiency and robustness of the system.

Nowadays, with the blessing of AI big model, multi-agent systems and LLM in many scenarios can try to combine applications, thus greatly expanding the boundaries of AI capabilities.

Tiger sniffing: What are the points that can be combined with the AI big model and multi-agent system of the current fire?

Michael Wooldridge:My research focuses on "what happens when artificial intelligence systems communicate with each other". Most people have smartphones and AI assistants for smartphones, such as Siri, Alexa or Cortana, which we call "agents".

For example, when I want to reserve a seat in a restaurant, I will call the restaurant directly. But in the near future, Siri or other intelligent assistants can help me complete this task. Siri will call the restaurant and make a reservation on my behalf. And the idea of multi-agent system is,Why can’t Siri communicate directly with another Siri?Why not let these AI programs communicate with each other? Multi-agent system focuses on the problems involved when these AI programs communicate with each other.

The combination of multi-agent system and large model is the project we are studying. In my opinion, there is a very interesting work to be done in building a multi-agent+large language model. Can we gain higher intelligence by making large language models communicate with each other? I think this is a very interesting challenge.

For example, we need to make an appointment for a meeting now. You and I both use Siri to communicate, but you like meetings in the morning and I like meetings in the afternoon.When there is a dispute between us, how can Siri, representing you and me, work together to solve this problem?Will they negotiate? When AI not only talks to people, but also talks to other AI systems, many new problems will arise. This is the field I am studying, and I believe that multi-agent system is the future direction.

Another interesting question about multi-agents and large language models is, if AI systems only communicate with each other, do they not need human language? Can we design more effective languages for these AI systems?

However, this will lead to other problems, and we need to formulate rules for the exchange of these agents and AI programs.How should human beings?Managing an artificial intelligence society composed of AI?

Siri’s question and answer

AI can’t go to jail instead of human beings.

Michael Faraday, a British scientist, invented the electric motor in 1831, and he didn’t expect the electric chair as a torture device. Karl Benz, who obtained the automobile patent in 1886, could not have predicted that his invention would cause millions of deaths in the next century. Artificial intelligence is a universal technology: its application is only limited by our imagination.

While artificial intelligence is developing by leaps and bounds, we also need to pay attention to the potential risks and challenges that artificial intelligence may bring, such as data privacy and job loss. Therefore, while promoting the development of artificial intelligence technology, we also need to carefully consider its social and ethical impact and take corresponding measures.

If we can really build AI with human intelligence and ability, should they be regarded as equal to human beings? Should they have their own rights and freedoms? These problems need our serious consideration and discussion.

Tiger sniffing: The Chinese Internet has an interesting point: "AI can never engage in accounting or auditing. Because AI can’t go to jail. " AIGC also has such problems in copyright. AI can easily copy the painting and writing styles of human beings, and at the same time, the creation made by human beings using AI also has the problem of unclear ownership. So what do you think of the legal and moral risks of artificial intelligence?

Michael Wooldridge:The idea that AI can’t go to jail is wonderful. Some people think that AI can be their "moral agent" and be responsible for their actions. However, this idea obviously misinterprets the definition of "right and wrong" by human beings. Instead of thinking about how to create "morally responsible" AI, we should study AI in a responsible way.

AI itself cannot be responsible. Once something goes wrong with AI, those who own AI, build AI and deploy AI will be responsible. If the AI they use violates the law, or they use AI for crimes, then it must be human beings who should be sent to prison.

In addition, ChatGPT needs to strengthen supervision in privacy protection. If ChatGPT has collected information about the whole Internet, then he must have read information about each of us. For example, my social media, my books, my papers, comments made by others on social media, and even deleted information. AI may also be able to paint a portrait of everyone based on this information, thus further infringing or hurting our privacy.

At present, there are a lot of legal discussions about artificial intelligence, not just for ChatGPT. The legal issues of artificial intelligence have always existed and become increasingly important, but at present, all sectors of society are still discussing and exploring this.

I think ChatGPT or other AI technologies will become more and more common in the next few years. However, I also think we need to use it carefully to ensure that we will not lose key human skills, such as reading and writing. AI can undoubtedly help human beings to improve production efficiency and quality of life, but it cannot completely replace human thinking and creativity.

People who are changing and want to change the world are all there. Tiger sniffing APP

Parisians left to contemplate familiar failure

Paris Saint-Germain were convinced that persuading Kylian Mbappe to stay would finally deliver them Champions League glory, but the failure to build a strong enough team around the France superstar has contributed to another early European exit.

A 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich in Germany saw the Qatar-owned club lose their last-16 tie 3-0 on aggregate, falling in the first knockout round for the fifth time in seven years.

There were celebrations last May when Mbappe agreed a new three-year contract to stay with Lionel Messi and Neymar in the French capital rather than join Real Madrid.

The appointments of super scout Luis Campos as head of recruitment and Christophe Galtier as coach to replace Mauricio Pochettino were supposed to be followed by the building of an exciting new team.

“It is not about the construction of the squad. It is just the story of the season,” said Galtier. “We were missing important players. The squad, over the two legs, was seriously weakened.”

He had a point, with Mbappe only able to make a cameo appearance off the bench after a thigh injury as PSG lost 1-0 in the first leg.

Neymar is missing with an ankle injury, while Presnel Kimpembe is out and fellow defenders Marquinhos and Nordi Mukiele both came off during yesterday’s game.

“It has been a very busy season. Players’ bodies have been asked to do a lot,” Galtier said.

“There was the World Cup, and obviously when you get to the last 16 it is good to have everyone available.”

PSG placed their hope in Mbappe and Messi turning the tie around in Munich, but the Argentine World Cup winner had little impact while the 24-year-old Mbappe saw just 32 touches of the ball.

“As I said in my first Champions League press conference this season, we were going to do our maximum. The truth is this is our maximum,” admitted Mbappe, whose own future will now again become the subject of increasing speculation

Masters: Invite sent to US golfer Scott Stallings’ namesake

US golfer Scott Stallings was handed a shock after discovering his Masters invitation had been sent to another person of the same name.

The 37-year-old tweeted he had been “checking the mailbox five times a day” for his invitation before receiving a direct message from another Scott Stallings.

The three-time PGA Tour winner posted the message from his namesake, which included: “I’m 100% sure this is NOT for me. I play but wow! Nowhere near your level.”

The message began: “Hi Scott. My name is Scott Stallings as well and I’m from GA (Georgia). My wife’s name is Jennifer too!!

“I received a FedEx today from the Masters inviting me to play in the Master’s Tournament April 6-9, 2023.

“It’s a very nice package complete with everything needed to attend. I think we have some confusion because of our names, our wife’s names and geographical location.”

He then attached a picture of the invitation adding: “I’m really not kidding I promise.”