The provincial "two sessions" were held intensively, and "transcripts" in 2022 and "plans" in 2023 were released one after another.
According to the statistics of The Paper, within three days (from January 11th to 13th), 23 provinces including Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shandong announced the target GDP growth rate in 2023 in the government work report, with the value ranging from 4% to 9.5%, among which the highest is Hainan (about 9.5%), the lowest is about 4%, and the value in other provinces is mostly concentrated in 5% to. Nineteen provinces have announced the real growth rate of GDP in 2022, among which Jiangxi Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region have the highest growth rates, about 5% and 5% respectively. However, the actual growth rate of 19 provinces failed to reach the target set in early 2022.
Under the background that the Central Economic Work Conference will focus on expanding domestic demand as the first priority in this year’s economic work, all localities have basically included expanding domestic demand, especially promoting consumption, in this year’s key work arrangements, and Jiangxi, Chongqing, Shandong, Anhui and other places have placed expanding domestic demand as the first priority; Around the manufacturing industry, some provinces have also deployed key tasks. For example, Guangdong emphasizes "the manufacturing industry is the master", Shandong says it will promote the action of strengthening the advanced manufacturing industry, and Sichuan will launch the "three-year action plan" for the development of national advanced manufacturing clusters; Many places have also added digital economy to clarify development goals in this field; In addition, encouraging and supporting the development of private economy and private enterprises has also become a key work deployment consideration for many provinces this year.
Achievements: Last year, the GDP growth rate of Jiangxi and Ningxia was temporarily high, and Guangdong’s economic aggregate ranked first in the country for 34 consecutive years.
According to statistics from The Paper, 19 provinces have announced the estimated GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2022. Including Jiangxi Province (5%), Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (about 5%), Hubei Province (about 4.7%), Shaanxi Province (4.5%), Shanxi Province (4.5%), Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (over 4%), Shandong Province (about 4%), Yunnan Province (about 4%) and Hebei Province (3.5%). Liaoning Province (about 2.3%), Chongqing City (about 2%), Guizhou Province (about 2%), Guangdong Province (about 2%), Hainan Province (positive growth) and so on.
Judging from the published figures, the GDP growth rate of Jiangxi and Ningxia is temporarily at the top. According to the government work report, Jiangxi has made outstanding achievements in recent years, with GDP exceeding 3 trillion yuan, industrial added value exceeding 1 trillion yuan, ranking 13th in the country, and manufacturing added value accounting for about 33% of GDP, ranking first in the country and entering the ranks of emerging industrial provinces. In addition, the added value of the digital economy exceeded one trillion yuan, accounting for 35% of GDP.
There are also many driving forces behind the rapid growth of GDP in Ningxia. The first press conference of the Propaganda Department of Ningxia Party Committee held at the end of last year revealed that in the first three quarters of 2022, the agricultural added value of Ningxia increased by 5.3%, ranking first in the country. From January to November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Ningxia increased by 8.0%, ranking fifth in the country; Investment in fixed assets increased by 10.3%, ranking third in the country; The total import and export volume increased by 39.5%, ranking fourth in the country.
However, compared with the expected growth rate set at the beginning of 2022, the actual growth rate of GDP in 19 provinces failed to meet the target.
Last year, China’s macro-economy faced the situation of "triple pressure" superimposed on the unexpected impact, and it was widely believed that the growth was less than expected. The China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) predicted that China’s GDP growth in 2022 would reach 3.3%, lower than the growth target of about 5.5% set at the beginning of the year.
In terms of GDP, Guangdong, the largest economic province, still leads. According to the government work report, it is estimated that it will reach 12.8 trillion yuan in 2022, ranking first in the country for 34 consecutive years. Guangdong’s strength can’t be separated from "manufacturing is the master". According to Nanfang Daily, in 2021, the added value of 20 strategic industrial clusters in Guangdong reached 4,906.997 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, and the added value accounted for about 40% of GDP.
The total GDP of Shandong, Zhejiang and Sichuan in 2022 is also considerable, of which Shandong is expected to be 8.7 trillion yuan; Zhejiang reached 7.35 trillion yuan in 2021; Sichuan is expected to exceed 5.6 trillion yuan.
Last year, the GDP of Hubei and Fujian was expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, among which Fujian broke through the "5 trillion threshold" for the first time. Hubei achieved a growth rate of 4.7% in 2022 against the background that its GDP reached 5,001.294 billion yuan in 2021.
Shanghai has exceeded 4 trillion yuan for two consecutive years. In addition, the total GDP of Anhui and Hebei in 2022 reached 4.5 trillion yuan and 4.2 trillion yuan respectively.
Target: Hainan’s target growth rate is currently the highest.
Fighting for the economy, boosting confidence and recovering are the key words in 2023.
The Economic Blue Book: Analysis and Forecast of China’s Economic Situation in 2023, jointly published by the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences and Social Science Literature Publishing House on December 13th, 2022, predicts that China’s economy will grow by about 5.1% in 2023, showing a further recovery trend.
Yao Yang, president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, recently said that 5% is the bottom line for GDP growth in 2023.
From the perspective of 23 provinces that have announced the GDP growth target in 2023, the value ranges from 4% to 9.5%, of which the highest is Hainan Province (about 9.5%), and the value of other provinces is mostly concentrated in 5% to 6.5%. In addition to Hainan, Xizang Autonomous Region and Jiangxi provinces’ GDP growth targets are all above 6.5% this year, about 8% and 7% respectively.
Compared with the actual growth rate and target growth rate of last year, the target growth rate of 19 provinces that have announced the actual growth rate of GDP last year is higher than that of last year. However, compared with last year’s target growth rate, the changes in 23 provinces are different, and 16 provinces have lowered their target growth rate, of which 11 provinces have lowered their target growth rate by 0.5 percentage point, namely Shanxi, Fujian, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Hubei, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, Guangdong, Liaoning and Sichuan, and 5 provinces and cities have lowered their target growth rate by 1 percentage point, namely Yunnan, Zhejiang, Guangxi, Guizhou and Tianjin.
Layout: Expand domestic demand to promote consumption, and increase support for manufacturing and digital economy.
The Central Economic Work Conference put "making efforts to expand domestic demand" as the first item when deploying economic work this year, and put forward "giving priority to restoring and expanding consumption" and "effectively promoting the investment of the whole society through government investment and policy incentives".
Among the key tasks in 2023 announced in the work reports of provincial governments, expanding domestic demand, especially promoting consumption, has become the focus. Shanghai proposes to strengthen the basic role of consumption in economic development. Give priority to restoring and expanding consumption and deepen the construction of an international consumption center city. Hebei stressed that efforts should be made to boost household consumption. Formulate implementation opinions on restoring and expanding consumption. Increase assistance to catering, accommodation, retail and other industries. Sichuan has made it clear that boosting domestic demand will stimulate economic growth, including vigorously promoting consumption recovery and promoting blood circulation, speeding up the construction of world-famous and world-renowned important tourist destinations, continuously increasing project investment, speeding up the construction of modern infrastructure, and releasing the investment potential of new urbanization. Shandong will give top priority to vigorously promoting the recovery and expansion of consumption, and will implement the "Shandong Consumption Boosting Year" this year.
Recently, Xu Qiyuan, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, shared his views in an exclusive interview with The Paper. He believed that the economic recovery in 2023 will show a pattern of "strong domestic demand and relatively weak external demand": on the one hand, external demand is not optimistic, and the pressure to stabilize foreign trade may suddenly rise. On the other hand, the performance of domestic demand in 2023 is worth looking forward to.
Regarding whether the expansion of domestic demand should focus on expanding investment or consumption, Xu Qiyuan said that in 2023, it is necessary to pay more attention to the pulling effect of consumption on the economy. "In the early stage of economic restart and repair, it is also a crucial period to restore consumer confidence. Relevant policies should be ahead of time and given enough strength, and the market confidence should be ‘ The first fire ’ Light it up as soon as possible and promote a virtuous circle. "
The central economic work emphasizes "accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system", and manufacturing and digital economy have become the key layouts of many provinces and cities this year.
Guangdong, a major manufacturing province, emphasizes the real economy as the foundation, insists on manufacturing as the master, and speeds up the construction of a strong manufacturing province and a strong quality province. It will upgrade and expand the existing eight trillion-dollar industrial clusters, accelerate the promotion of ultra-high-definition video display, biomedicine and health, new energy and other industries to become new trillion-dollar industrial clusters, and accelerate the construction of several 500-billion-dollar emerging industrial clusters. Hubei proposes to firmly grasp the main direction of kinetic energy conversion, and thoroughly implement the multiplication action of strategic emerging industries, the strategy of manufacturing a strong province, the action of improving quality and efficiency of service industry and the jump project of digital economy, so as to comprehensively improve the modernization level of industrial system. In addition, Shandong indicated that it will promote the action of strengthening the advanced manufacturing industry, and Sichuan will launch the "three-year action plan" for the development of national advanced manufacturing clusters.
There are still many provinces and cities focusing on the digital economy. Shanghai proposed that in 2023, efforts should be made to promote the digital transformation of cities and accelerate the construction of an international digital capital with world influence. Zhejiang pointed out that this year, we will vigorously promote digital industrialization and industrial digitalization, cultivate 40 digital enterprises with over 10 billion yuan, add 150 smart factories and digital workshops, and strive to increase the added value of the core industries of the digital economy by 10%. Fujian has set the goal of realizing the added value of the digital economy of more than 2.9 trillion yuan in 2023.
In addition, how to boost the confidence of private economy and private enterprises has also become the focus of attention of many provinces and cities this year. Guangdong made it clear that it will issue opinions to promote the development of private economy. Zhejiang emphasizes supporting the high-quality development of the platform economy, accurately formulating supporting policies, establishing a professional service mechanism, encouraging platform enterprises to strengthen the research and application promotion of cutting-edge technologies, and supporting platform enterprises to show their talents in leading development, creating jobs and international competition.
关于作者